It’s been a while since our last draft preview, but Pradamaster of Bullets Forever provided Daily Basketball with this NBA draft preview of the Washington Wizards.

Record: 41-41

This Year’s Picks: #16 and #47 (for the moment)

After a poor November, the Wizards raced to the top of the Eastern Conference by going 12-4 in December. Early-season wins included victories over Phoenix, Dallas, and the Lakers. Gilbert Arenas was doing his Hibachi routine, Caron Butler was coming into his own as an all-star caliber player, and the clubhouse was as goofy as ever. Everything seemed to be going well.

Then, injuries derailed the end of the season, relegating the team to a mediocre 41-41 finish and a four-game sweep at the hands of the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Wizards held the top spot in the conference past the all-star break, but the writing was on the wall, even before the injuries to Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, and Gilbert Arenas.

A leaky defense got even worse as the season went along, and although Arenas continued to hit memorable game-winning shots, he fell into a shooting slump. Butler suffered a bruised knee shortly after the all-star break and was never the same player. Jamison sprained his knee against Detroit and missed a month. The team’s lead over Miami in the Southeast dwindled by the day. Michael Ruffin threw the ball up into the sky instead of letting the clock run out, leading to a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Raptors. Then, in a perfect storm of events, Butler and Arenas suffered season-ending injuries in the last week in March, leaving an undermanned team in their place. Jamison performed admirably trying to carry a wounded squad, and every game was close, but the Wizards simply lacked the firepower to finish off games.

The injuries muddle the long-term picture significantly. On the one hand, when healthy, this team was much improved over the previous two seasons. On the other hand, they were starting to fall off even before everyone got hurt, and it’s unclear whether they were as good as Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, or even Toronto.

This offseason will be incredibly important, as eight Wizards are set to be restricted or unrestricted free agents. Next year, Arenas will be a free agent after announcing his intention to opt out of his current contract, and Jamison will also be looking for a new deal. The team’s course of action this offseason determines their direction next year.

Of the eight free agents, only three are really significant. Andray Blatche, the talented young forward, is a restricted free agent, and it has been reported that he may command as much as 4 million dollars per season on the open market. Based solely on his upside, the Wizards will likely match any offer, but that eats into their salary cap more than expected. DeShawn Stevenson, the starting shooting guard stolen from the Orlando Magic for the veteran’s minimum, is an unrestricted free agent. When the Big 3 of Arenas, Jamison, and Butler were in the lineup, Stevenson was an excellent role player, but once Arenas and Butler went down, Stevenson struggled mightily. That might end up being a blessing in disguise, as it will drive Stevenson’s market value down. If possible, the Wizards should re-sign him to a contract similar to the 3 year/10 million dollar deal he turned down last offseason. The other key free agent is backup small forward Jarvis Hayes, who has yet to capitalize on being selected 10th overall in the 2003 draft. It’s probably time for him to move on.

The biggest needs for the Wizards are to find better defense and to upgrade the surrounding bench. Don’t be surprised if general manager Ernie Grunfeld trades away either the disgruntled Brendan Haywood or the overpaid Antonio Daniels and Etan Thomas to acquire another late first-round pick. Defense has to be the number 1 priority for this team, no matter where they go in the draft. Ideally, the Wizards would draft a promising young shot-blocking big man like Joakim Noah or Al Horford, but neither will be around by the 16th pick. Instead, expect the Wizards to look for depth on the wing. Arenas, Butler, and Daniels are the only players under contract at the 1, 2, and 3 spots, and Daniels may be traded. If USC’s Nick Young is available by the 16th pick, that’s probably where they will go. Otherwise, it could be Vanderbilt’s Derrick Byars, Georgia Tech’s Thaddeus Young and Javaris Crittenton, Rice’s Morris Almond, or a complete wildcard. If they decide to go big anyway, Colorado State’s Jason Smith or Brazil’s Tiago Splitter are possibilities. Also, don’t count out trading down, especially if Nick Young is off the board.

With their second-round pick, the Wizards could use another perimeter stopper, so guys like Virginia Tech’s Zabian Dowdell or Maryland’s D.J. Strawberry make sense. If they don’t go big in the first round, UMass’s Stephen Lasme or LSU’s Glen Davis are possibilities. However, you never know what GM Ernie Grunfeld is up to, so don’t be surprised if they go in a completely different direction.

I’d bet on at least one of the Haywood/Thomas/Daniels trio to be traded away on draft day, and if not then, definitely in the offseason. Because of Jamison’s 16 million dollar expiring contract, the Wizards have been popping up in trade rumors involving guys like Shawn Marion and Zach Randolph. I doubt either of those comes anywhere near happening. More likely, the Big 3 will remain, but they’ll be surrounded by a number of different characters, preferably ones with a defense-first mindset. If the team struggles out of the gate next season, then we can discuss trading one of the Big 3, but until then, they’ll probably stick around, albeit potentially with a very different set of surrounding characters.

To read more from Wizards’ talk from Pradamaster, visit Bullets Forever.

On a side note: Tweens have recently been indulging more in golf and tennis to some extent in spite of the fact that lacrosse equipment is more easier to get their hands on.